Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
