It was two months prior that the young forward found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while his coach scolded him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained if his performances were a sign or the source for the side's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. After Rogers swept in his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win their opening six fixtures, now sit only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
This is a particularly tough question to resolve. History, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, even as the wins have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look curiously susceptible – but currently the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to save the day with some clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more versus Manchester United.
His opener originated from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still find their top level.
- The main striker might resume scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he was in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would be third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
