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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the country's largest city at a time when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent elected, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd